2008 May Look Closer to 04 & 00- Unity Critical-Support Obama!

I am a strong former Hillary Clinton supporter who is now ready to help lead my Labor Union to a smashing Senator Obama victory in November especially for PA & NJ. I am excited and ready to give my all for the honorable Senator from Illinois.

For Clinton supporters who are still undecided about Sen. Obama, I hope you know that our country has to come first. We need you in November. Without a united Democratic Party, it will be very difficult if not almost impossible to win a national race.

To prove my point of a much needed united party,

Stuart Rothernberg is the 3rd so called "political guru" in the last 72 hours( Cook & Rasm were the other two) who has stated that the 2008 race may eventually look very similar to the '04 & '00 in terms of states & battlegrounds on the map.

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspo t.com/2008/06/how-different-will-2008-wh ite-house-map.html

Now that both parties have settled on a official nominee, Republicans & Republican leaning indies will start coming home.
Same with Democrats & its dem leaning indies.

As Roth & Cook have pointed out, the democratic votes may increase in many parts of the country on election day. This will be due to the heavy african-american & youth turnout. Plus, the massive 50 state spending of Senator Obama's campaign. But it won't be enough to flip these so called strong red states.

Thus, unless their is a complete Mccain meltdown or a GOP collapse, pretty much the same battleground states will be up for grabs in November.

Money advantage is always huge. But the Obama vs. Clinton fiasco proved clearly that even a 4 to 1 edge is not enough to win or flip states. Yes, it can make a candidate competitive. But to actually carry the state, its a whole other story. Ohio, Texas, PA, & Indiana showed that clearly.

This is why our candidate needs more than just money. We need Democrats to come home ! The so called polls showing 20% or 25% possible crossover will not do it. That's way too high.

Lets not repeat the mistakes of the 80's. You learn from your mistakes in history.

Speaking as a labor working class white male, the same group of people may or may not make the same mistake made in the 1980's.

We cannot afford 4 more years of the same back breaking economic, foreign, domestic policy.

This is not about Obama anymore. This is about your family, your children & grandchildren.

With a united party, Obama can & will carry states like Ohio, PA, MI, NJ, MO, NH & thus be the next President of the United States.

Let's go !

P.S. Senator Obama's 50 state strategy is a blessing for the democratic party. This strategy may not show its fruits yet in 2008. But long term, Sen. Obama's campaign would be responsible for the phenomenal long term success of the Democratic party.



Display:


Suggest other states (none / 0)

Ohio, Texas, PA, & Indiana showed that clearly.

Actually Texas and Indiana weren't all that clear; the amount Clinton won by there may have been less than the number of Republicans that admitted to voting for her in exit polling.  That's almost certain in Indiana.

Better examples would be Kentucky and West Virginia.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:48:16 AM EST

can you stop already (2.00 / 2)

insisting everthing that doesn't favor Obama is Rush/Chaos? you are clearly having troble accepting reality if you truly think Obama's going to have an easy time in the electoral college.


by Lakrosse on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:52:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

When Obama got GOP support in open (2.00 / 1)

contests, it was a sign of WONDERFUL MARVELOUS crossover appeal.
When Hillary did the same, it was a nefarious EVIL NEO CON plot.
Can we stop the two faced hypocritical bull, now that the contest is over, and start, like, you know, goin' after REPUBLICANS ???????
I'm waiting to see one quarter of the anti Hillary vitriol directed towards Mccain.  Just one quarter, Obamacans.  Please?
John McCain says he would stay in Iraq for 100 years? That's crazy talk!
by kosnomore on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No vitriol here (none / 0)

Honestly, I think that Operation Chaos was the best thing to happen to us this season outside of having two great candidates.

By keeping our primary going, Rush jacked up our donations, voter registration, political excitement, and media coverage.  He humiliated McCain by making him lose 25% of the vote in uncontested primaries and let Ron Paul steal delegates at relatively ignored state conventions.

It wasn't an evil neocon plot, it was a complete backfire by idiots that ended up helping us greatly.

You want to accuse me of playing partisan, try figuring out if I'm being partisan at all before you jump on my back.  I'm over the primary.  I'm in general election mode.  I just want everyone to be realistic about what happened.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That wasn't necessarily directed to you (2.00 / 1)

just the fact that its OVER.
As they say, let's move on.
John McCain says he would stay in Iraq for 100 years? That's crazy talk!
by kosnomore on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:09:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Easy does it (none / 0)

I recced the diary and understand that there are good points.

I'm just saying that there are better examples of states that won't flip no matter how much money is spent.  Texas was pretty close and Indiana was the squeakiest of squeakers.

They do not accurately represent what the diarist is talking about here.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's why voter registration is so important!!! (none / 0)


by slinkerwink on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:49:09 AM EST

Re: Suggest States (2.00 / 3)

Dracom,

My point is whether it was KY,WV,PA,TX,OH,-

Hillary Clinton was strongly favored in these states due to her large base of loyal core supporters. She had the VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS on her side. The Massive Obama spending PREVENTED a Massive Clinton victory in some of these states.

Don't forget, Obama had Two VERY POWERFUL keys going for him when he entered these states.

1) He had the Massive 4 to 1 spending advantage

2) Virtually 100% of the media & the almost the entire General Public already expected Obama to be the eventual Democratic Nominee.

Yet, despite those two Very Strong Factors, her strong base of support in those states was enough to carry her to victory. ( despite all the odds against her)

The point is come November, certain Purple & Red states like Ohio & Missouri are naturally favoring any Republican candidate especially in Presidential races.

A Strong Money advantage alone will not be enough to flip these states. A massive Democratic base turnout combined with indy support will be a must.

Take out Obama's money advantage & make it even spending, McCain will probably carry OH,MO,MI & PA.

Again, just because demographics favor him.

At the end of the day, our big money advantage will keep Obama competitive. But it will still be a solid & united democratic turnout combined with indy's who will determine if he wins these battleground states.


by libdemusa on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:07:02 PM EST

Fair enough (none / 0)

The thing about Obama is that changes seem to be big, but over time his base minimum score seems to improve.  He proved it against Clinton, and I think he'll do the same with McCain.

Winning over Republicans and right-leaning independants is going to be much harder, of course, but I think the same prevailing trends will apply.  I think he'll eventually win a lot of these purple states (and maybe a red state or two, especially in the west), but only if we unify and work hard for it.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fair enough (none / 0)

I'm with you 100%

If Obama can win these purple states & a even a couple of these Red states, we are going to be a very powerful political party in the next 4 to 8 years.

Obama won't win all of Clinton supporters. The key is to minimize the number of them especially in battleground states. ( and of course win unhappy republicans to offset it)

Honestly, I still go with the predictions made by Rothenberg & Scheneider on national TV.

And that's , If Obama wins, he will win BIG ! He will shock the Republicans are carry states like Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri,New Mexico, Nevada. Plus keep states like PA, MI, IA, NH Blue.

It would be a massive win for President Obama!

On the flip side, if he should lose, it won't be electorally close either.

We could see states like PA,MI,OH,MO,NH,ME,NJ plus the entire south going for McCain.

That's why at the end of the day. We already know that the Youth, Blacks & liberal whites are coming out in massive numbers for Obama.

Whether he wins big in this climate of democratic advantage will really depend on millions of white women, millions of white working class voters, millions of latinos, and millions of white senior citizens.

I believe this 2008 national race will ne won or lost based on the outcome of these key democratic blocks of voters.

New voter registration will help but won't be enough. It will still boil down to reaching out to these groups & winning even 90% of them over.


by libdemusa on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 12:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No principles come first, sorry (none / 0)

Principles come first. The irony is there was a time when I imagine most democrats felt the same way. I observed the DNC watch silently as the media and Obama supporters attacked Hillary with not a single utterance of disapproval. I watched delegates be taken away from Hillary. I watched a party split hairs over the importance of caucasus and technicalities in dismissing two states in a surreal timewarp 2000 flashback...I suppose I woke up to realize the dems and the repubs really are much more alike than different in many many ways.

The truth is what we ALL really know within us and what Ralph Nader has addresses many times..the parties are too much the same to really make a difference. Principles, yes those pesky internal jabs that demand you follow what you know to be true.  So you follow you principles and many of us will follow ours and maybe one day we can come together in a third party.


by gorgias on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 06:12:31 PM EST


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